US ORDERS DIPLOMATS OUT OF SAUDI ARABIA AS OIL SMASHES PAST $111 AND THE IRAN WAR ENTERS WEEK TWO

The United States State Department on Sunday ordered non-essential government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia.

It was the first evacuation directive for any American embassy in the Middle East since the war began on February 28. The order cited rising dangers from armed confrontations, terrorism, and missile and drone assaults originating from Yemen and Iran.

That single sentence carries weight.

Washington has maintained diplomatic presence in Saudi Arabia through every regional crisis for decades. Pulling staff now signals something the official statements have been careful to avoid saying outright: the conflict zone is expanding, and the Gulf is no longer a safe perimeter.

OIL AT LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE 2022

Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged more than 20 percent on Sunday, briefly reaching $111.04 per barrel, according to Bloomberg. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, climbed past $114 per barrel, up 25 percent from Friday's close of $92.69, according to DW.

These are prices the world has not seen since July 2022.

Since the coordinated US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, crude has risen approximately 50 percent, according to Al Jazeera. The driver is not just the fighting itself but what the fighting has done to the Strait of Hormuz.

About 20 percent of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes through that narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. As of last week, according to Reuters, the number of oil tankers transiting the strait had fallen to zero, down from 37 on February 27, the day before the first strikes.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards have warned they will target any vessel attempting to pass through. Cargo ships have ceased operations in the strait entirely.

THREE OPEC GIANTS CUTTING OUTPUT

Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, three of OPEC's largest producers, have begun reducing output as storage capacity fills up with nowhere to ship, according to Bloomberg and Al Jazeera.

Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned in an interview with the Financial Times that all oil-producing nations in the Gulf could cease production within weeks if the situation persists. He assessed that such a scenario could push oil prices as high as $150 per barrel.

The Philippines imports nearly 90 percent of its oil from the Middle East, according to ING Think. Every dollar added to the barrel price feeds directly into the fuel costs that Filipino consumers pay at the pump.

On March 10, Philippine oil companies will implement staggered diesel price increases of P17 to P24 per liter, the largest single-week fuel hike in the country's history.

IRAN ATTACKS GULF STATES, SAUDI INTERCEPTS DRONES TARGETING OIL FIELD

Iran continued striking targets across the Gulf on Monday, according to DW.

Saudi Arabia's defense ministry reported it intercepted and destroyed four Iranian drones en route to the Shaybah oil field in eastern Saudi Arabia, near the UAE border. A separate Saudi civil defense report said a projectile strike in Al Kharj province killed two people and wounded 12 others, according to ABC Australia.

In Bahrain, an Iranian drone strike on Sitra island injured 32 people, including children and a two-month-old baby, four of them severely, according to DW. Multiple explosions were reported in Doha, Qatar.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian released a video earlier apologizing for strikes against neighboring countries, saying Tehran would cease hostilities against nations not assisting the US and Israel. But Saudi Arabia responded that Iranian attacks were continuing and that the pretexts were baseless, warning of consequences "now and in the future," according to CNBC.

MOJTABA KHAMENEI NAMED SUPREME LEADER

Iran's Assembly of Experts designated Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the country's new supreme leader, according to Al Jazeera, BBC, and DW.

The appointment came after the elder Khamenei was killed in the initial US-Israeli strikes on February 28. Israel immediately warned that anyone assuming the position of supreme leader would face assassination threats.

Former CIA Director David Petraeus told CNN the choice was "unfortunate," characterizing Mojtaba as a continuation of his father's hardline ideologies.

US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that the new supreme leader "will not last long" without American approval, and that no negotiations would occur until Iran agrees to an "unconditional surrender."

GLOBAL MARKETS IN FREEFALL

The oil shock rippled through Asian markets on Monday.

S&P 500 futures fell 1.7 percent and Nasdaq Composite futures dropped 1.9 percent. Japan's Nikkei 225 futures plummeted 7 percent, according to Al Jazeera.

The Philippines is not insulated. The PSEi fell below 6,000 last week for the first time since 2020, and the peso touched a record low of P59.50 against the dollar. Economists have warned that sustained oil prices above $100 per barrel could push Philippine inflation past the BSP's 2 to 4 percent target range and force an interest rate reversal.

THE PHILIPPINE EXPOSURE

The Strait of Hormuz closure is not an abstract geopolitical event for the Philippines. It is a direct supply line severed.

An estimated 2.1 million Filipinos live across the Middle East, according to Philippine diplomatic and migration data. About 1.1 million are deployed land-based OFWs. As of early March, 1,979 OFWs from nine countries have requested repatriation, with Kuwait accounting for 633.

The DMW on Sunday declared the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf a "War Risk Operations Area," giving Filipino seafarers the legal right to refuse boarding vessels transiting through the zone.

And the fuel math is unforgiving. At $111 per barrel, the Philippines is facing a price regime not seen in years. The government is weighing whether to invoke the TRAIN law provision that suspends fuel excise taxes when global prices exceed $80 per barrel. The House Ways and Means Committee held an emergency hearing last week, where the DOF estimated that suspending excise taxes would cost P136 billion in 2026 revenue.

There is no version of this crisis that does not reach every Filipino household.