TRUMP GIVES IRAN 48 HOURS: WHAT A CLOSED STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS ALREADY DOING TO FILIPINOS

"If Iran does not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz without threats within 48 HOURS from this precise moment, the United States will attack and destroy its various power plants, starting with the largest."

That was Donald Trump on Truth Social, posted Saturday night, March 21, from Mar-a-Lago. He followed it with a second post vowing to "obliterate" Iranian power plants starting with the biggest one.

The clock started at roughly 7:45 PM Eastern time Saturday. It expires Monday evening, US time — Tuesday morning Philippine Standard Time.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR PUMP PRICE ON MARCH 24

Before the geopolitics: another fuel price hike is expected on March 24.

The Philippines already absorbed two rounds of historic increases since the war started on February 28. In the March 17 to 19 round alone, Shell raised gasoline by ₱16.60 per liter and diesel by ₱23.90 per liter, per the DOE. Petron and Flying V moved diesel up ₱20.40. Diesel is approaching ₱114 per liter, per ABS-CBN. March 24 is expected to be the third consecutive large-scale hike — specific figures were not yet released as of March 22.

The structural reason: the Philippines imports 95% of its crude oil, with 98% of that coming from the Middle East, per Inquirer and Philstar. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil, 19% of global LNG, and 28% of global LPG. Any further disruption to that passage translates directly to pump prices here.

The peso compounds it. On March 19, the peso fell to a record low of ₱60.1 per dollar — the first time in history it crossed that level — per Manila Bulletin and Bloomberg.

THE STRAIT IS ALREADY 95% SHUT

The blockade predates Trump's ultimatum. Iran's IRGC took effective control of the strait shortly after the war began, with full control confirmed by March 4. Daily transits fell from 125 ships to 3 to 5 — a 95% drop, per Clarksons Research. Over 3,000 vessels are stranded in Persian Gulf ports, with more than 20,000 seafarers affected, the IMO told the UN.

Iran confirmed 24 attacks on merchant vessels through March 19, killing crew members on multiple ships. Iran has allowed passage to China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Malaysia, and Iraq — blocking only Western and US-allied ships.

Global crude has surpassed $100 per barrel, up from roughly $60 to $70 before the war. European gas prices are up 60%, per Euronews.

IRAN THREATENS FULL CLOSURE AND NAMES SIX CONDITIONS

Iran's armed forces headquarters responded Sunday: if the US attacks Iranian energy infrastructure, Iran will strike back against "all US energy, IT, and desalination facilities in the region," according to CNN and PBS. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf stated that regional infrastructure — including desalination plants — would be "irreversibly destroyed" if power plants were bombed.

Iran's UN representative wrote to the Security Council that strikes on power plants would be "inherently indiscriminate and clearly disproportionate."

Separately, Iran published six conditions for ending the war per Palestine Chronicle: binding guarantees against future attacks, closure of all US military bases in the region, war reparations, an end to regional wars, a new legal regime giving Iran formal authority over the Strait of Hormuz, and prosecution of certain media figures. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stated Iran will not accept a ceasefire — only a complete and lasting end to the war, per NBC News.

WHAT MANILA IS DOING

President Marcos implemented a 4-day government workweek effective March 9 and ordered agencies to cut fuel and power use by 10 to 20%, per Channel NewsAsia. The Senate voted March 17 to grant him authority to suspend or reduce excise taxes on oil.

The government distributed ₱5,000 cash subsidies to tricycle drivers in Manila — roughly $84 — and announced aid for farmers, fisherfolk, and public transport drivers, per ABS-CBN. Petron CEO Ramon Ang confirmed the company is in talks to source Russian oil as Middle Eastern supply tightens, CNA reported.

A nationwide transport strike on March 19 to 20, led by PISTON and Bagong Alyansang Makabayan, drew strike centers across Metro Manila. Drivers reported losing roughly ₱1,000 per day to fuel costs.

Around 2 million Filipinos work in the Middle East. Remittances from the region account for roughly 20% of total Philippine cash remittances, which exceeded $35 billion in 2025, per Inquirer. Over 1,400 OFWs had requested repatriation as of mid-March.

WHEN THE CLOCK RUNS OUT

Trump's deadline expires Monday evening US time — Tuesday morning here.

Iran has given no indication it will comply. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on March 17 that "nobody is ready to put their people in harm's way in the Strait of Hormuz," per Reuters, and no NATO ally or Asian partner has committed military support. The IDF chief said the campaign is roughly halfway complete. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said operations would "significantly increase in the upcoming week."

If Trump follows through and Iran follows through on its counter-threat, the current 95% closure becomes complete — affecting even the allied nations currently allowed through. The March 24 hike lands before any of that is resolved. Whatever happens Tuesday morning, Philippine fuel costs have only moved in one direction since February 28.