THE PESO AT P60: HOW THE IRAN WAR IS GUTTING THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY

P60.10 to the dollar.

That is where the peso closed on Thursday, March 19 — the weakest level in the currency's history, according to Inquirer.net and Bloomberg. The intraday low reached P60.40. In a single session, the peso shed 58 centavos, driven by surging global oil prices from the Strait of Hormuz closure and a strengthening US dollar.

Four weeks ago, the peso was near P58. It has lost ground nearly every day the war has continued.

THE NUMBERS

Brent crude oil stood at approximately $112 per barrel as of March 20, according to Trading Economics — roughly 50 percent above pre-war levels. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20 percent of global oil and gas, has effectively shut down. The International Maritime Organization reported more than 3,000 vessels stranded in the region, with 20,000 seafarers unable to move.

The Philippines imports approximately 98 percent of its fuel. For the week of March 17 to 23, diesel rose by up to P23.90 per liter and gasoline by up to P16.60 per liter, per Top Gear Philippines citing Department of Energy data.

Capital Economics revised its Philippines GDP growth forecast to 3.8 percent for 2026 in a report dated March 20 — below last year's 4.4 percent and well short of the government's 5 to 6 percent target.

DEPDev Secretary Arsenio Balisacan, in House testimony on March 10, presented a severe scenario: if crude averages $140 per barrel in March and stays above $80 through September, Philippine inflation could reach 6.3 to 7.5 percent. Pre-war inflation in February was 2.4 percent.

BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. and Finance Secretary Frederick Go have both signaled that a rate increase is possible at the April 23 policy meeting — a full reversal of the BSP's easing cycle — if oil stays above $100 per barrel, per Bloomberg and BusinessWorld Online.

THE OFW COUNT

As of March 14, the government's Bagong Pilipinas Repatriation Program had brought back 1,315 Filipinos from the Middle East — 1,022 OFWs and 293 dependents — per the Department of Migrant Workers and Philstar. On March 15, another 341 arrived at NAIA Terminal 1 from Saudi Arabia on a government-chartered Philippine Airlines flight, putting the total above 1,600.

DMW Secretary Hans Leo J. Cacdac said the government is prioritizing OFWs in high-risk areas and those with humanitarian concerns. OWWA has a P1.2 billion Emergency Repatriation Fund in play.

Approximately 2.4 million Filipinos live and work throughout the Middle East, per DFA figures. Fewer OFWs working, fewer dollars flowing home, and a peso at record lows — that combination gets harder to absorb the longer the war runs.

MANILA'S RESPONSE

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. suspended a transport fare hike on March 18, ordering nationwide free rides and fare discounts on the MRT and LRT, per Inquirer.net and Philstar. The four-day workweek for executive branch agencies — signed via Memorandum Circular 114 by Executive Secretary Ralph Recto — remains in effect with no announced end date.

Congress passed legislation on both chambers giving Marcos authority to suspend fuel excise taxes: the House on March 16 by 247 votes, the Senate on March 17 by 17 votes, though the two versions differ and still need reconciliation. A full suspension would cut diesel by roughly P6 per liter and gasoline by P10 per liter, per DEPDev — at a cost of P136 billion in lost revenue from May through December.

WHERE THE WAR STANDS

On March 20, Trump posted on Truth Social that the US was considering "winding down" military efforts. The same day, the Pentagon announced 2,500 additional Marines aboard the USS Boxer Amphibious Ready Group were deploying to the Persian Gulf, and the White House requested an additional $200 billion from Congress for the war, per AP and BBC.

US Central Command Admiral Brad Cooper said on March 21 that US forces have struck more than 8,000 Iranian targets since the war began. Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt earlier stated that Iran's ballistic missile capability is down roughly 90 percent and drone capacity down roughly 95 percent.

Iran is still firing. On March 21, Iran launched two ballistic missiles toward Diego Garcia — the joint US-UK Indian Ocean base roughly 2,500 miles from Iran — but neither hit the base, per CNN and Bloomberg. Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery was struck March 19 and 20, per AP. Iran announced its 70th round of attacks as of March 21, per Al Jazeera.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed on March 19 that Iran "does not have the ability to enrich uranium and cannot produce missiles." IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi disputed that the same day, telling CBS News that "a lot of Iran's nuclear enrichment capability remains intact" and that Iran retains "the capabilities, the knowledge, the industrial ability" to resume enrichment.

Trump announced a temporary suspension of sanctions on certain Iranian oil on March 20 — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it could release 140 million barrels into global markets — but only through April 6.

Balisacan said it plainly in his House testimony: "It's difficult to predict; it depends on the duration of this conflict. It could be a matter of weeks or extend over several months."

The peso, the pump price, the OFW count, the inflation projections — all of it rides on that variable. And with Trump deploying more troops while saying the war is nearly over, that variable is still wide open.