THE PENTAGON JUST DECLARED THE "MOST INTENSE DAY" OF STRIKES INSIDE IRAN — AND TEHRAN SAYS NEGOTIATIONS ARE OFF THE TABLE

Twelve days into the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, two things happened simultaneously on Tuesday that moved the conflict in opposite directions.

From Washington, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that Tuesday would see the heaviest bombardment of the entire war so far. From Tehran, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview with PBS News that talking to the Americans "is no longer on our agenda."

That is the state of this war on Day 12. One side is escalating. The other side has closed the door on diplomacy.

THE PENTAGON BRIEFING

Hegseth outlined the US military's objectives at a Tuesday morning press conference: dismantling Iran's missile stockpiles and launch systems, destroying its defense manufacturing capacity, neutralizing what remains of Iran's navy, and permanently blocking the country from obtaining nuclear weapons.

General Dan Caine, Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Iran's ballistic missile strikes have declined 90 percent from their initial levels since February 28. Drone attacks are down 83 percent. In the past 24 hours, according to Caine, Iran launched the fewest projectiles since the conflict began.

But those declining numbers have not translated into a collapse of Iranian resistance. Approximately 140 US service members have been wounded since the war began, according to the Pentagon. Eight are in critical condition. Seven have been killed.

Hegseth declined to offer a timeline for the end of hostilities. "This is not 2003," he said. "This is not endless nation building under those types of quagmires we saw under Bush or Obama."

IRAN'S RESPONSE

Foreign Minister Araghchi, speaking to PBS NewsHour, was blunt. After three rounds of nuclear negotiations in which, according to Araghchi, the American team itself acknowledged "big progress," the US chose to attack anyway.

"I don't think talking with Americans anymore would be on our agenda anymore," he said.

Araghchi rejected the characterization that Iran is deliberately disrupting oil supplies. "This is a war imposed on us," he said. "What we are doing is only defending ourselves. We are facing an act of aggression which is absolutely illegal."

Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said separately that China, Russia, and France have all reached out to Tehran regarding a possible ceasefire, according to Iranian state television.

Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, posted on X in response to Trump's warning of retaliation if Iran blocked Hormuz. "The freedom-loving nation of Iran is not afraid of your hollow threats," he wrote. "Even those who were mightier than you have failed to destroy the Iranian nation. Watch yourself — or you'll be eliminated."

THE HORMUZ PROBLEM

US intelligence believes Iran may be preparing to deploy naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to CBS News. The strait carries approximately 20 percent of global oil and gas shipments. It has been effectively shut since the war began, with tanker traffic plummeting since February 28.

In response, the US military destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels near the strait. Trump said on Tuesday the vessels were "inactive" but warned of "significant military consequences" if Iran attempts to lay mines.

The International Energy Agency convened a second emergency meeting with G7 nations on Tuesday to discuss releasing strategic oil reserves. The US is reportedly pushing for a coordinated release of 300 to 400 million barrels, roughly 25 to 30 percent of the 1.2 billion barrels held in IEA member reserves, according to CNBC. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the ongoing conflict could produce "catastrophic consequences" for global oil markets if escalation continues.

Oil prices dropped more than 11 percent on Tuesday after Trump suggested the war could end soon and as speculation grew that the reserve release would move forward. Brent crude settled at $87.80, down from a four-year high of $119.50 reached the day before, though prices remain far above pre-war levels.

THE PHILIPPINE FALLOUT

The Philippines imports the vast majority of its petroleum. When Hormuz shut down, it set off a chain reaction that is now being felt at every gas station, ferry terminal, and airport in the country.

Diesel is projected to reach P80 per liter or higher. The peso plunged to an intraday record low of P59.50 against the dollar on Monday. The Philippine Stock Exchange index dropped nearly 5 percent in a single session. Shipping lines across the Visayas have cut routes and raised fares by 10 to 25 percent.

More than 2 million Filipinos work across the Middle East. As of last week, at least 1,189 had requested repatriation through OWWA. The first batch of nine from Iran, including five minors, arrived home on March 10 and 11 after being routed through Turkey and Singapore.

President Marcos, currently in New York for meetings at the United Nations, said the Philippines has sufficient fuel reserves and that incoming shipments are not expected to pass through the conflict zone. He also committed to certifying as urgent a bill that would grant him the power to suspend fuel excise taxes.

The war shows no sign of ending. Neither does its downstream pressure on 115 million Filipinos.