P7 BILLION SHORT: THE REPATRIATION MATH FOR 1,979 OFWS AS THE MIDDLE EAST BURNS

Seven billion pesos.

That is the gap between what the Philippine government has budgeted for OFW repatriation and what it will actually cost if the Middle East conflict forces a full-scale pullout, according to Senator Sherwin Gatchalian.

In an interview on Super Radyo dzBB on Sunday, Gatchalian laid out the arithmetic. The 2026 national budget allocates P6 billion for repatriation. But worst-case estimates, including undocumented Filipino workers, push the actual need to P13 billion, according to GMA News.

The Department of Migrant Workers had already flagged the shortfall, saying it would need a supplemental budget to cover a worst-case scenario. The Overseas Workers Welfare Administration said repatriation costs per individual, initially pegged at P135,000 to P140,000, could reach P150,000 after the escalation, according to GMA News.

WHO IS ASKING TO COME HOME

As of March 5, 1,979 OFWs across nine countries in the Middle East had formally requested repatriation, according to the Department of Migrant Workers.

Kuwait accounted for the largest number at 633, according to GMA News. The rest were distributed across Bahrain, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Qatar, Israel, and other posts in the region.

These are the ones who have come forward. The Department of Foreign Affairs counts more than 2.4 million Filipinos residing across the Middle East. Not all of them want to leave. But the number asking is growing.

THE ONES ALREADY MOVING

Repatriations are happening in waves.

On Saturday, 81 OFWs arrived back in the Philippines. On Sunday, 61 more landed at NAIA Terminal 3 from Dubai aboard Emirates Flight EK 334, including three minors, according to GMA News. They received financial and transportation assistance, temporary accommodation, and psychosocial support on arrival.

Separately, 11 Filipinos were evacuated from Iran to Van, Turkey, through the coordinated efforts of the Philippine Embassies in Tehran and Ankara, according to Inquirer. The evacuation was funded by the DFA's Assistance-to-Nationals Fund. Those 11 are scheduled to fly to the Philippines in the coming days.

An estimated 800 Filipinos remain in Iran.

ONE WOUNDED, ONE DEAD

One Filipino national in Doha, Qatar, sustained minor injuries from intercepted missile shrapnel, according to the Philippine Embassy in Doha. The individual is safe and recovering, according to GMA News.

The conflict has already claimed one Filipino life. Mary Ann Velasquez de Vera, a caregiver from Pangasinan working in Israel since 2019, died after being struck by shrapnel from an Iranian missile during the February 28 attacks on Tel Aviv. She was accompanying her elderly ward to a bomb shelter when the strike occurred, according to GMA News and the Philippine News Agency.

The Embassy of Israel in the Philippines formally mourned her death and recognized her service.

THE SEA ROUTES ARE NOW WAR ZONES

On Saturday, DMW Secretary Hans Leo Cacdac signed DMW Advisory No. 11, Series of 2026, classifying the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman as "Warlike Operations Areas," according to Inquirer and ABS-CBN.

Under the advisory, Filipino seafarers can refuse to sail through these waters.

"Filipino crew members, especially ship owners employing Filipino personnel, should avoid operating in that region. If they must go there, they must grant Filipino crew members the autonomy to decline sailing and steer clear of these dangerous waters," Cacdac said in a video message Saturday night, according to Inquirer.

The Philippines supplies a significant share of the global seafarer workforce. The advisory sends a signal well beyond Filipino sailors.

CONGRESS STEPPING IN

House Majority Leader Ferdinand Alexander "Sandro" Marcos announced Sunday that Speaker Faustino Dy III has requested a joint briefing by the House Committees on Foreign Affairs and Overseas Workers Affairs, set for Wednesday, March 11, according to GMA News and Inquirer.

The briefing will review the conditions faced by OFWs in the conflict zone and the preparedness of government agencies to intervene.

"The House wants to receive a full briefing on the situation on the ground and on the readiness of our agencies to assist our nationals should conditions require government intervention," Marcos said, according to GMA News.

The DFA and DMW are expected to present the number of affected OFWs, security conditions, and contingency plans.

The Senate had already held similar hearings on March 4 and 5, according to Inquirer.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

The P7 billion gap is a budget problem. But the scale behind it is a human one.

Fuel prices are set to spike further. Minimum estimated increases for next week: P19 per liter on diesel, P9 on gasoline, P31 on kerosene, according to GMA News. If global oil averages above US$80 per barrel for three consecutive months, excise taxes on petroleum are automatically suspended under the TRAIN Law, costing the government an estimated P15 billion per month in lost revenue.

Repatriation costs, the oil shock, and the seafarer advisory are three threads of the same crisis. Together, they compound.

And 1,979 Filipinos are still waiting.