ONE YEAR SINCE THE ARREST THAT CHANGED THE PHILIPPINES — DUTERTE STILL IN THE HAGUE AS ICC CLOSES EVERY EXIT

Exactly one year ago today, on March 11, 2025, Philippine authorities arrested former President Rodrigo Duterte at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport. He had just landed from Hong Kong. By nightfall, he was on a chartered flight to The Hague.

Twelve months later, he remains in a Dutch detention facility in Scheveningen, and every legal door his defense team has tried to open has been shut.

The International Criminal Court's Pre-Trial Chamber found him fit to stand trial on January 26, 2026. His lawyers tried to appeal that ruling, arguing the chamber ignored clinical evidence of memory impairment. On February 13, the chamber denied the appeal, stating the defense failed to present a viable issue warranting review.

That same day, the ICC authorized 500 additional individuals to participate in the proceedings as victims, bringing the total to 539.

The confirmation of charges hearing ran from February 23 to February 27. Prosecutor Mame Mandiaye Niang laid out the case: three counts of crimes against humanity for murder and attempted murder, tied to 49 specific incidents spanning November 1, 2011 to March 16, 2019. The period covers Duterte's years as Davao City mayor and the first half of his presidency.

Former ICC judge Raul Pangalangan noted that those 49 incidents represent a fraction of the broader campaign. While government records documented over 6,000 drug suspects killed in police operations, human rights organizations have estimated a total death toll as high as 30,000.

Duterte waived his right to attend the hearing. His defense team countered the prosecution's case during the final two days. The Pre-Trial Chamber has 60 days from February 27 to issue its decision on whether to confirm the charges and send the case to trial.

THE APPEALS CHAMBER HAS BEEN EQUALLY FIRM

On March 6, 2026, the ICC Appeals Chamber issued a judgment rejecting the defense's appeal against the pre-trial detention review. The ruling confirmed that Duterte will remain detained pending the outcome of proceedings.

This was not the first rejection. In November 2025, the Appeals Chamber denied Duterte's request for interim release, a decision his family said they accepted "with peaceful hearts."

The Duterte family has maintained daily visits whenever possible. Vice President Sara Duterte raised concerns last September about a Philippine Embassy "welfare check" on her father at the detention facility, calling it a "false pretense" visit. The Palace referred the issue to the Department of Foreign Affairs.

BACK HOME — THE STREETS ARE ON WATCH

The Philippine National Police is bracing for protests today. PNP chief Police General Jose Melencio Nartatez confirmed that social media monitoring has flagged calls for a motorcade rally along EDSA, ending at Villamor Air Base in Pasay City, the same airfield where Duterte was taken before his transfer flight to The Hague.

Police have increased deployment in Metro Manila and in Davao City, Duterte's political stronghold. Nartatez ordered maximum tolerance.

"We respect your right to protest, but I remind everyone to exercise discipline and comply with authorities' directions to prevent unnecessary conflicts," Nartatez said.

WHERE THINGS STAND

Duterte is the first former Asian head of state to be indicted by the ICC. The confirmation decision is expected by late April, based on the 60-day window from the conclusion of hearings on February 27.

If the charges are confirmed, the case moves to a Trial Chamber. If the chamber declines, Duterte could walk free.

The warrant against him was issued as secret on March 7, 2025, reclassified as public on March 11, and he was surrendered to the court by March 12. His initial appearance was on March 14, 2025.

One year in, the ICC process has moved with a speed unusual for the institution, and the defense has not managed to slow it down. The next decision could determine whether the former president faces a full trial, or whether the case unravels before it begins.