Ngayon panlang brutal ng presyo ng fuel and it will continue to rise sa mga susunod na linggo.

Starting March 10, diesel prices in Metro Manila jumped by P17.50 to P24.25 per liter. Gasoline surged by P7 to P13. Kerosene — the fuel of the poor, the fuel of fried fish and dimly lit sari-sari stores — went up by P32 to P38.50 per liter.

That was last week.

This week, March 17, the next wave is already coming. Industry sources told the Inquirer that diesel could rise by another P19.30 to P22.30 per liter, and gasoline by P14 to P17 per liter.

We are not at the peak. Not yet.

What's Driving This

It starts at the Strait of Hormuz. Around 20% of the world's oil passes through that narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman. It's effectively closed right now following military actions linked to the US-Israel-Iran conflict.

The Philippines imports 98% of its crude oil from the Middle East. That is not a rounding error. That is almost complete dependence on a region that is, at this moment, on fire.

And because the Philippines uses the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) as its pricing reference, whatever happens in the Gulf hits pump prices here almost immediately. There's no buffer. Energy Secretary Sharon Garin put it plainly: "Kung umakyat, talo tayo." When prices go up, we lose.

China made things worse. Beijing signaled it would restrict fuel exports to protect its own domestic supply, which forces the Philippines to compete for more expensive replacement cargoes from farther sources.

A Six-Week Projection (And Why It's Uncertain)

Here's the honest picture, week by week, based on what we know now:

Week 1 (March 17): Diesel up P19.30–P22.30/L, gasoline up P14–P17/L. This is already confirmed by industry sources. After last week's record hike, pump prices for diesel in North Luzon have already hit P70–P80/L, with premium diesel reaching P94.65/L.

Week 2–3 (March 24 – April 6): The trajectory points upward. Fitch raised its average 2026 oil price forecast to $70 per barrel, assuming the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed. MUFG Research warned that if oil sustains at $90–$100 per barrel, Philippine inflation could breach the BSP's 4% upper-end target for the entire year. More pump price hikes in the P10–P20 range per liter are highly likely in these two weeks if the Hormuz situation doesn't resolve.

Week 4–5 (April 13–26): This is the window where things could go either way. The DOE confirmed that local fuel inventories can last until the end of April. If supply diversification kicks in — the government is eyeing Brazil, Venezuela, the US, Canada, India, and Africa as alternative sources — pressure could ease slightly. The OPEC+ decision to add 206,000 barrels per day starting April 2026 is also a potential downward force.

Week 6 (April 27 – May 2): If the Hormuz closure persists into May, DEPDev's second scenario kicks in harder — $140/barrel crude, with diesel and gasoline prices staying above their current crisis levels through September. Under that scenario, there is no relief in Week 6.

The only wildcard working in consumers' favor: Marcos has certified as urgent a bill allowing him to suspend or reduce excise taxes on fuel. The House already approved it on second reading. If passed and invoked — diesel has a P6/L excise tax, gasoline has P10/L — that's a partial cushion, not a fix.

What It Means For Ordinary Filipinos

The LTFRB is already fielding active petitions for permanent fare hikes — P2 for jeepneys and city buses, 50 centavos per kilometer for provincial buses, and 30–40% increases for P2P services.

Public utility vehicles account for 65% of diesel consumption in the country. When diesel prices move, everything downstream moves — fares, freight, food.

Progressive groups have already used the phrase "inflation explosion." Meralco warned that electricity bills could go up by April. The peso closed at 59.735 on March 13, weakening under the weight of oil shock and war fear.

MUFG calculates that every $10/barrel increase in oil prices cuts Philippine GDP growth by around 0.2 percentage points and raises inflation by around 0.6 percentage points. We are not at $70/barrel right now. Dubai crude already breached $100 at the time of the latest major hike.

The DOE says don't panic buy. That is good advice.

But don't expect this to end soon.