MARCOS WANTED TO "WATCH THE TRENDS." FIVE DAYS LATER, HE WANTS IT ENFORCED IMMEDIATELY.

March 18, in San Juan City, reporters asked Ferdinand Marcos Jr. when he planned to use the new emergency powers Congress was handing him to suspend fuel excise taxes. His answer: "That depends… that's a very complicated calculation… We will see. Depends on the trends. We have to watch the trends on oil prices. We just have to look. It's very hard to say because it's all speculation. We don't know how long this will last for."

March 23, Palace Press Officer Clarissa Castro told reporters something different: "The president desires for this to be enacted without delay. The only obstacle is that the bill has not yet been presented to him. Once he receives it and signs it, he will promptly issue an order to either lower or suspend the excise tax."

Five days. Same bill. Completely different posture.

WHAT HAPPENED IN THOSE FIVE DAYS

Between March 18 and March 23, fuel prices and street pressure both broke in the same direction.

The DOE confirmed diesel hikes of P20.40 to P23.90 per liter and gasoline hikes of P12.90 to P16.60 per liter that week. Then, on the morning of March 23 — the same morning Castro made her announcement — the DOE posted further increases effective March 24: diesel up P11.88 per liter, gasoline up P9 to P12 per liter. Some stations were already past P114 on diesel before that hike landed. Dubai crude was trading between $130 and $153 per barrel. Iran's military had warned it could reach $200.

The transport sector stopped waiting. Piston, Manibela, and Laban TNVS struck on March 19 and 20. On March 23, the Alliance of Concerned Transport Organizations pulled an estimated 20,000 jeepneys off roads nationwide. ACTO president Libay de Luna was direct: to show the President that drivers were struggling. The No to Oil Price Hike coalition had already announced a two-day nationwide strike for March 26 and 27.

Jeepney drivers reported earnings around P300 a day. The P5,000 cash ayuda the government distributed was, by most driver accounts, already spent.

THE BILL STILL WASN'T SIGNED

Here is the part that gets lost in the Palace's urgency messaging: as of March 23, Marcos had not signed Senate Bill 1982.

The House approved the bill 247-3 on March 16, the Senate 17-0 on March 17, and the House adopted the Senate version on March 18 to skip the bicameral conference. But as of March 23, Senate President Vicente Sotto III had not yet received the enrolled copy from the House. By evening, Sotto had signed two enrolled copies — though the bill still needed House Speaker Faustino Dy III's signature before transmission to Malacañang. Dy had not signed as of March 24.

SIGNING THE BILL AND USING IT ARE TWO DIFFERENT THINGS

Castro's framing — "the only obstacle is that the bill has not yet been presented to him" — underplayed a second layer: signing the bill and issuing the suspension order are two separate actions.

Under SB 1982, Marcos can only exercise the suspension power upon a formal recommendation from the Development Budget Coordination Committee, in coordination with the Secretary of Energy. Finance Secretary Frederick Go had confirmed on March 20 that the $80-per-barrel threshold had not yet been sustained for the required 30 consecutive days. Dubai crude exceeded $80 on March 5, putting the 30-day clock at approximately April 4.

Go had called it "too early" on March 17. By March 23, the Palace said the DBCC was being prepared to move quickly once conditions were met. The earlier "complicated calculation" Marcos cited was a reference to exactly this. The law requires steps. The presidency's urgency does not replace them.

EVEN AFTER SIGNING, THE PUMP PRICE RELIEF TAKES TIME

Senator Pia Cayetano, who sponsored the bill, explained the mechanics of why the signing would not immediately lower pump prices.

Excise taxes are levied at importation — when oil companies bring fuel into the country. An oil company carrying existing inventory bought at full excise rates will keep recovering those costs until the old stock runs out. New, tax-free imports have to arrive and replace the old supply before any savings reach the pump.

Cayetano estimated consumers would wait 30 to 45 days from the issuance of a suspension order before feeling the difference at the pump. "As the day goes on, we can monitor if their stocks are running out, and they're now buying without the excise tax. Then there's a chance it can be felt sooner," she said.

Under a full suspension, the expected savings are P11.20 per liter on gasoline and P6.72 per liter on diesel. Even with those savings, diesel at P120 per liter drops to roughly P113. The Philstar Freeman editorial noted that even at full suspension, diesel would fall from around P114 to about P82 — still far above pre-crisis levels.

If Speaker Dy signs within days, the enrolled bill reaches Marcos by late March, Marcos signs immediately, and the DBCC issues a recommendation before April 4, a suspension order could theoretically come in late March or early April. But 30 to 45 days after that order is late April to mid-May.

That is the gap between what the Palace announced on March 23 and what the drivers who struck on March 23 will actually experience.