IRAN REJECTS CEASEFIRE OFFERS FROM CHINA, FRANCE, AND RUSSIA — REVOLUTIONARY GUARD SAYS NOT A SINGLE LITER OF OIL WILL LEAVE THE PERSIAN GULF

Kazem Gharibabadi, a senior Iranian Foreign Ministry official, went on state television late Monday and said the Islamic Republic had turned down ceasefire proposals from China, France, Russia, and other nations.

His exact words, according to the Associated Press: "Currently, we possess the advantage. Just observe the state of the global economy and energy markets. It has been exceedingly painful for them."

Gharibabadi said Iran would decide when the conflict ends. Not Washington. Not Tel Aviv. Tehran.

Hours later, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued its own declaration. The IRGC said it would not permit "a single liter of oil" to exit the Persian Gulf, according to the Associated Press and the New York Times.

WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world's crude oil and natural gas typically passes, has been effectively closed since early in the conflict, according to NPR. The closure was driven not by a naval blockade but by an insurance-driven shutdown: Iran launched enough drone strikes near the strait to make insurers and shipping companies refuse coverage for vessels attempting the crossing.

On Tuesday, a British maritime agency reported that three ships were struck by unidentified projectiles in or near the strait, according to the New York Times.

The United States announced it had destroyed 16 Iranian vessels used for laying mines in or near the strait, according to AP. However, President Donald Trump stated on social media that there were no indications Iran had actually deployed explosives in the waterway.

Iraq, which depends on the strait for virtually all its oil exports, has been forced to halt operations at some of its largest fields, according to NPR.

THE MILITARY PICTURE ON DAY 13

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday that Iran recorded its lowest missile launches within a 24-hour period since the conflict began on February 28, according to the New York Times.

The IRGC disputed this characterization. A Revolutionary Guard spokesperson told Tasnim, a news agency affiliated with the IRGC, that the missiles now being used are "larger and more potent" than those deployed in the opening days.

The New York Times, drawing from reports by defense ministries and regional officials, tallied Iran's total launches since the war began at over 2,000 drones, 500 ballistic missiles, and 20 cruise missiles across Gulf nations.

Analysts at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv said the reduction could reflect diminished stockpiles or a strategy to conserve munitions for a longer war.

BEIRUT AND HEZBOLLAH

Israel struck a residential building in the Aicha Bakkar district of central Beirut on Tuesday without prior warning, according to Al Jazeera. Footage showed two floors engulfed in flames. The target was not immediately identified.

The strike came in a densely populated area, located buildings away from Dar al-Fatwa, the highest Sunni Muslim religious authority in Lebanon, according to AP.

Hezbollah fired 150 rockets at northern Israel on Tuesday, according to the Times of Israel. Over 780,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon since the renewed conflict with Hezbollah began on March 2, according to Al Jazeera.

The Hezbollah-Israel front opened March 2, when the group launched projectiles into northern Israel following the killing of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei in the opening U.S.-Israeli strikes.

THE OIL PRICE WHIPLASH

Oil prices surged to nearly $120 per barrel on Monday, the highest level since 2022, according to AP. Trump then indicated the conflict would be "short-term," which helped stabilize markets and pushed prices back down to approximately $90.

But Trump simultaneously pledged to persist with the campaign. "We've already achieved many victories, but we haven't secured enough," he said in a speech in Doral, Florida, on Monday, according to AP. "We will continue pressing forward, more resolute than ever."

WHAT THIS LOOKS LIKE FROM THE PHILIPPINES

The Philippines imports the vast majority of its petroleum products. The Department of Economy, Planning, and Development said Tuesday that the Iran war could trim 0.2 to 0.3 percent from the country's gross domestic product growth this year and push inflation above 4 percent, according to BusinessWorld.

MUFG Global Markets Research estimated that if oil prices sustain at $100 per barrel, Philippine GDP growth could fall to 3.7 percent in 2026. At $130 per barrel, that drops to 3.4 percent, according to BusinessWorld.

Oil companies in the Philippines have begun implementing staggered price increases, with diesel expected to rise by as much as P24 per liter.

Approximately 2.2 million Filipinos live and work in the Middle East. The Department of Migrant Workers classified the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf as a "War Risk Operations Area," giving Filipino seafarers the right to refuse sailing through the zone.

As of March 11, a total of 1,979 overseas Filipino workers in nine countries had requested repatriation, according to the government. The first batch of nine Filipinos evacuated from Iran arrived in the Philippines on Tuesday.

One Filipino seafarer remains missing after a tugboat was struck by a missile in the Hormuz area, according to testimony at a House of Representatives joint briefing on March 11.