IRAN IS SHIPPING MILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL TO CHINA THROUGH THE SAME STRAIT IT SHUT DOWN FOR EVERYONE ELSE

While the rest of the world's tanker fleet sits idle, afraid to enter the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian crude is moving.

According to data from commodity tracking firm TankTrackers, Iran has shipped approximately 11.7 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on February 28 — all of it destined for China. Energy analytics firm Kpler puts the total at roughly 12 million barrels.

Six tankers have departed Iranian ports since the first bombs fell. Three flew the Iranian flag. Several disabled their tracking systems after Iranian authorities warned ships to cease broadcasting their locations.

A 97 PERCENT COLLAPSE

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped by 97 percent since the war began, according to United Nations data compiled by UNCTAD and cited by Reuters and Bloomberg.

On February 27, the day before the conflict started, 141 ships passed through the strait. By March 8, the number was four.

At least 11 commercial vessels have been attacked since hostilities began, according to the International Maritime Organization. Seven crew members are dead.

The latest incident came on Wednesday, March 12 (Manila time). The UK Maritime Trade Operations center confirmed a cargo ship was struck by an unidentified projectile in the strait, causing a fire and forcing the crew to evacuate. Reuters, AP, and AFP all confirmed the attack. On March 4, the Malta-flagged Safeen Prestige was struck two nautical miles north of Oman. Fire reached the engine room. The crew abandoned ship.

The IRGC declared it would "not allow export of a single drop of oil from the region to the hostile side and its partners until further notice."

But Iranian oil keeps moving.

THE JASK BYPASS

Iran has also restarted crude exports through the Jask oil terminal on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing Hormuz entirely. According to Kpler, a tanker loaded roughly two million barrels at Jask on March 7. The terminal is far slower than Iran's main export hub at Kharg Island — ten days to load versus one to two — but it sits outside the strait.

Neptune P2P Group confirmed seven ships passed through Hormuz between March 8 and March 11. Five were linked to Iranian-associated shipping. Many used "dark transits" — sailing with tracking transponders switched off.

China, the leading buyer of Iranian crude, imported 15.8 percent more oil in February year-on-year. The Atlantic Council estimated China's strategic petroleum reserves at 1.2 billion barrels as of January — three to four months of demand.

THE ESCORT QUESTION

The United States has not yet deployed naval escorts for commercial shipping through the strait.

General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a Pentagon briefing on March 10 that the military is "looking at a range of options" but offered no specifics and acknowledged the mission has not been tasked.

Retired Royal Navy Commander Tom Sharpe told Reuters it would be "plausible" to escort three to four ships daily using seven to eight destroyers — but only if threats from Iranian mini-submarines and explosive-laden vessels are mitigated first. He warned the operation would be unsustainable over several months.

The physical geography is the core problem. Shipping lanes are just two miles wide in each direction. Vessels must navigate turns near Iranian-controlled islands that offer concealment for IRGC fast-attack craft and explosive-laden jet skis. The Houthi disruption of the Red Sea lasted over two years despite US naval operations. Hormuz is narrower, closer to hostile territory, and carries far more energy.

THE PHILIPPINE COST

The Philippines imports over 90 percent of its petroleum needs. A significant share originates from Middle Eastern suppliers who ship through or near the Strait of Hormuz.

On Wednesday, March 11, oil companies implemented another round of staggered increases: diesel rose by P11.50 per liter, gasoline by P6.50, and kerosene by P17.50. Brent crude has climbed roughly 24 percent since the war began — from around $72 per barrel in late February to a peak near $120 before settling around $89.

The DOTr has prepared P3.5 billion in subsidies, including free rides on EDSA busway routes and fuel vouchers for public utility vehicle drivers. The BSP has warned that oil above $100 per barrel could push inflation beyond its two to four percent target, potentially forcing a rate hike.

For the Philippines, the Hormuz crisis runs directly from that waterway to the price on every fuel pump and jeepney fare in the country.

DAY 13

The war entered its 13th day on Wednesday with no ceasefire in sight.

Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said on X that Tehran is "definitely not looking for a ceasefire." At least 1,300 people have been killed in Iran since the conflict began, according to Iranian officials. The death toll in Lebanon has reached 397, according to Lebanese authorities. Seven US service members have been killed and 140 wounded, according to the Pentagon.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told the Associated Press: "The disruption at the Strait of Hormuz is blocking volumes of oil from the whole region. If this takes a long time, it will have a catastrophic impact on the global economy."