GALUNGGONG AT P340: HOW THE OIL SHOCK IS REWRITING FOOD PRICES IN THE PHILIPPINES

A fish vendor at a Metro Manila market put it plainly on March 11. The day before, she was selling galunggong for P260 to P280 a kilo. The next morning, she bumped it to P340. Not because the fish changed. Because the fuel did.

Diesel prices have surged by P49 per liter since the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran on February 28 — and every kilogram of food that moves from a boat, a farm, or a warehouse to a wet market is absorbing that cost somewhere.

HOW FUEL GETS INTO EVERY FOOD PRICE

The path from pump to wet market runs through everything.

Fishing boats run almost entirely on diesel. Pamalakaya, the national fishers' organization, reported in mid-March that a 60% diesel price increase was forcing fishermen to cut their daily fishing hours nearly in half. A commercial vessel in Subic burns up to 1,000 liters per trip — at current prices, the economics of going out barely work.

Trucking is the same story. Every inter-provincial food shipment moves by diesel-powered truck, and carriers have been passing the added cost directly to retailers. Department of Agriculture spokesperson Arnel de Mesa acknowledged this directly: the price increases come down to the cost of moving goods. Retail pork in Marikina Public Market was at P380 per kilo by March 11, up roughly P30 per kilo from before the conflict.

Livestock feed — corn, soy, other feed mill products — arrives by sea at freight costs that have also climbed. That feeds into poultry and pork prices over a slightly longer timeline. The cascade is already in motion.

THE SCALE OF THE GOVERNMENT RESPONSE

The Department of Agriculture rolled out a fuel subsidy program on March 22 and 23: P50 million targeting 9,570 mechanized farmers at P5,000 each, a separate P3,000 one-time subsidy for over 10,000 fisherfolk, and an additional P50 million through a Development Bank of the Philippines agreement for around 50,000 more.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel acknowledged the limits himself. Senator Francis Pangilinan noted that the P3,000 fisherfolk subsidy would last approximately four days. The 2026 national budget has no line item for agricultural fuel subsidies — the P50 million comes from unused 2025 appropriations. The broader Presidential Assistance for Farmers and Fisherfolk Program, originally designed for calamities, is being repurposed to distribute P2,325 cash assistance each to eligible farmers and fisherfolk, with a nationwide rollout set for April 6.

On rice, the DA has been weighing a P50-per-kilo cap on imported rice since March 16. Well-milled rice was already averaging P55.10 per kilo in early March, and some Cebu markets were seeing P65 to P70 for specific varieties. Malacañang signaled support for the cap on March 23. Executive Order No. 39 already sets a ceiling of P45 per kilo for well-milled rice — but that ceiling has clearly broken down in practice.

WHAT THE NUMBERS ARE PROJECTING

February 2026 inflation came in at 2.4% — the highest in 13 months — before the oil shock fully reached price data. DEPDev's pre-crisis baseline forecast for 2026 was 3.6%.

DEPDev Secretary Arsenio Balisacan presented two stress scenarios to lawmakers on March 10. The moderate one, with oil around $100 per barrel, put March inflation between 4.5% and 5.1%, already above the government's 2%-4% ceiling. The severe scenario, near $140 per barrel, projected a March spike possibly reaching 7.5%. Brent crude was approaching $100 by March 22. RCBC chief economist Michael Ricafort said the same day that inflation would likely exceed the BSP's 4% upper limit.

The Institute of International Finance flagged the Philippines alongside Thailand and India as significantly affected by sustained Gulf energy disruptions, with limited fiscal room to absorb the shock. Food and energy together account for over 30% of the Philippine CPI basket.

THE DTI FREEZE AND WHAT COMES AFTER

On March 16, Trade Secretary Ma. Cristina Roque convened 21 manufacturers of basic necessities and secured voluntary pledges to hold prices steady. The 30-day commitments — canned sardines, bread, condiments, processed meat, bottled water, soap — run to approximately mid-April. Lucky Me, Ho-Mi, Argentina, and a few others committed to 60 days.

The gap in the arrangement is obvious: it covers packaged goods, not galunggong, not pork, not vegetables. Not the fresh produce that makes up most of what lower-income households actually buy.

President Marcos visited a food company in Laguna on March 20 and said the food supply was enough even for the long term, and that prices might not move for up to two months. Two days later, Agri Secretary Tiu Laurel was telling reporters that retail food prices may slightly rise due to freight and transport costs — a quiet step back from that framing. Diesel was already close to P100 per liter at many stations by March 22, with industry sources projecting it could breach P120 by March 24.

When the 30-day pledges expire around mid-April, diesel will likely be higher than it is now. The peso has been pushing toward a record low, compounding every import cost. The DA's subsidies are drawn from a finite 2025 budget remnant. Several manufacturers have already signaled plans to raise prices once their commitment window closes.

That window is mid-April. After that, there is no announced mechanism to hold the line.